Annual Economic Outlook: Thriving and likely to flourish into 2020

Annual Economic Outlook: Thriving and likely to flourish into 2020

Last event of the 2018-2019 Economic Club of Phoenix season ends with prediction for Arizona's economy next year


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TEMPE, Ariz., May 10, 2019 /PRNewswire-HISPANIC PR WIRE/ — A crowd of engaged leaders throughout the Phoenix business community came together Thursday, May 2, 2019, to hear top experts from the W. P. Carey School of Business answer questions about the state and nation.

The event featured three speakers, including Dennis Hoffman, professor of economics and director of the Seidman Research Institute, who examined recent national trends and discussed the factors that will influence those trends going forward.

“People worry about global warming, but I worry about global graying,” Hoffman said. “For the first time ever, we have more people 65 and older than 5 and younger. That will change the way people consume, what they’ll buy, and how much they spend.”

Lee McPheters, research professor of economics and director of the JPMorgan Chase Economic Outlook Center, offered a first look at the year ahead for Arizona and the Phoenix metro area, along with an update on year-to-date performance in 2019.

“Are we on the verge of a bubble? Well, as a percent of all jobs, construction is about 5.7%, not the 9 or 10% it was in 2006,” Hoffman said, noting that the additional construction jobs are supporting job growth. “It’s construction of office space, distribution space, and public-sector investment.”

Mark Stapp, Fred E. Taylor Professor in Real Estate and executive director of the Master of Real Estate Development program, explained the concerns over affordable housing amid the rapid growth in home prices.

“We are building what we need to house the population that is moving here and not building in excess, and that continues to push prices up,” Stapp said. “There’s no slack in the inventory.”

The bottom line: The economy should remain strong this year
The U.S. and local economy are still growing, businesses continue to hire, and employees are reaping the rewards of a tight labor market. The W. P. Carey economists expect the booming economy to continue through 2019 but say they’re uncertain about 2020. While they agree with other economists that no recession is expected next year, growth compared to the past six quarters will feel slow.

The event was hosted by the Economic Club of Phoenix and included the 13th Annual Economic Confidence Quiz in which Research Professor McPheters challenged guests to answer a set of questions about what’s driving the Arizona economy.

To schedule an interview with Hoffman, McPheters, and Stapp, email shay.moser@asu.edu, managing editor for ASU’s W. P. Carey School of Business.

About the W. P. Carey School of Business
The W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University is one of the top-ranked business schools in the United States. The school is internationally regarded for its research productivity and its distinguished faculty members, including a Nobel Prize winner. Students come from more than 100 countries and W. P. Carey is represented by alumni in more than 160 countries. Visit wpcarey.asu.edu.

SOURCE W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University

Annual Economic Outlook: Thriving and likely to flourish into 2020